Corona Virus Member Discussion

[Z15 SS 454]

Originally Posted by Keith Seymore

I've been practicing social distancing, with varying degrees of success, for about 40 years.

K

Yup, After 26 years my Wife finally seems to understand this behavior now......

[BJCHEV396]

CNN....627 deaths in Italy past 24 hours.

[Lynn]

I hate to be the one to broach this subject, but at some point we must strike a balance between the cost of social distancing taken to the extreme vs. the cost of a certain percentage of the population getting sick; and yes, even dying.

I keep hearing the talking heads referring to every life as being priceless; and how we must take all the extreme measures even if it means saving one life. Frankly, that is not now, and never has been, reality; not in this Country, not any where in the world.

Before you dismiss me as a heartless bastard, let me give you just ONE example. On average we kill 37,000 (or thereabouts) people in highway accidents every year just in the U. S.. If we truly believed that every life was priceless, and that each life must be saved at all cost, the national speed limit would be around 30 mph, because very few people die in car accidents at that low of a speed. Let’s face it, that isn’t happening. There was enough of an outcry when we were at 55.

Then, you say, what about pedestrian accidents? Even at 30 mph, pedestrians get killed. Right you are. The solution? We build pedestrian bridges over every intersection in the U. S. to save those last few thousand lives. Also, not happening.

At some point we have to decide where to draw these lines. Different States have different needs right now. Some need more drastic measures than others. Just my opinion, but when they shut down all the restaurants in OKC, I believe that went overboard. There needs to be some room for personal choice. Some restaurants around here had already blocked off every other booth or table, to create distancing. Sherri and I went out to eat Tuesday evening after buying her new car. We weren’t within 20 feet of another patron. Currently, at last count, there were 46 known cases in Oklahoma, among almost 4 million residents. We are ALREADY social distancing.

Sadly, it appears the only opinions being espoused to those in charge are from those wanting the most drastic measures, always justified because “every life is priceless.” We need to evaluate the impact of those measures along with considering the consequences of no measures. Strike a balance. Look at Lee’s graphic. Assuming it is 100% accurate (and we really don’t know, because we haven’t been here before, but it seems quite reasonable) the return on investment is HUGE from 0% to 50% reduction, but not nearly as drastic for that next 25%. I don’t know where to draw the line. But I can guarantee you, I don’t want it at 100%.

Here is the kicker: If we plunge the entire WORLD into a depression as bad as the 1930's how many of those “priceless” live going to be lost then? I am just saying look at the REAL big picture. Let’s take reasonable measures, but don’t go overboard.

I mean no disrespect to those of you (or anyone for that matter) that believes the entire Country (and Canada as well, so maybe I should say the entire continent) should go on lock down. I think it is a huge mistake if we do.

[Crush]

Originally Posted by Lynn

I hate to be the one to broach this subject, but at some point we must strike a balance between the cost of social distancing taken to the extreme vs. the cost of a certain percentage of the population getting sick; and yes, even dying.

I keep hearing the talking heads referring to every life as being priceless; and how we must take all the extreme measures even if it means saving one life. Frankly, that is not now, and never has been, reality; not in this Country, not any where in the world.

Before you dismiss me as a heartless bastard, let me give you just ONE example. On average we kill 37,000 (or thereabouts) people in highway accidents every year just in the U. S.. If we truly believed that every life was priceless, and that each life must be saved at all cost, the national speed limit would be around 30 mph, because very few people die in car accidents at that low of a speed. Let’s face it, that isn’t happening. There was enough of an outcry when we were at 55.

Then, you say, what about pedestrian accidents? Even at 30 mph, pedestrians get killed. Right you are. The solution? We build pedestrian bridges over every intersection in the U. S. to save those last few thousand lives. Also, not happening.

At some point we have to decide where to draw these lines. Different States have different needs right now. Some need more drastic measures than others. Just my opinion, but when they shut down all the restaurants in OKC, I believe that went overboard. There needs to be some room for personal choice. Some restaurants around here had already blocked off every other booth or table, to create distancing. Sherri and I went out to eat Tuesday evening after buying her new car. We weren’t within 20 feet of another patron. Currently, at last count, there were 46 known cases in Oklahoma, among almost 4 million residents. We are ALREADY social distancing.

Sadly, it appears the only opinions being espoused to those in charge are from those wanting the most drastic measures, always justified because “every life is priceless.” We need to evaluate the impact of those measures along with considering the consequences of no measures. Strike a balance. Look at Lee’s graphic. Assuming it is 100% accurate (and we really don’t know, because we haven’t been here before, but it seems quite reasonable) the return on investment is HUGE from 0% to 50% reduction, but not nearly as drastic for that next 25%. I don’t know where to draw the line. But I can guarantee you, I don’t want it at 100%.

Here is the kicker: If we plunge the entire WORLD into a depression as bad as the 1930's how many of those “priceless” live going to be lost then? I am just saying look at the REAL big picture. Let’s take reasonable measures, but don’t go overboard.

I mean no disrespect to those of you (or anyone for that matter) that believes the entire Country (and Canada as well, so maybe I should say the entire continent) should go on lock down. I think it is a huge mistake if we do.

I totally agree with this but unfortunately common sense, that’s what your logic is, may be long gone.
I might add that as the hysteria rises people get more and more desperate. I won’t go into detail what that desperation could lead to but it could lead to way more lives lost.

[Lee Stewart]

Lynn:

It is not fair to make any comparisons to other stats. And BTW, you picked a miniscule one. How about: Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. And they still sell cigarettes right.

Stop looking at the mortality rate and concentrate on the rate of those people going into the hospital and those going into ICU. If CV-19 overwhelms our health care system, what about all the other people who need to be hospitalized or placed in ICU? Are doctors going to have to choose who lives and who dies?

Having your lifestyle disrupted so abruptly sucks. I understand that. It sucks for all of us. But it's the price we have to pay to get this pandemic stopped in it's tracks right away. We do not want a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu. 675,000 Americans died and we had a population that was more than 3X smaller than it is today. If CV-19 duplicated the Spanish Flu we would see well over 2 million people die here in the US.

It's important not to keep asking "when are we getting there?" This is a 1000 mile trip and we just passed mile marker 50.

[Lynn]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

Lynn:

It is not fair to make any comparisons to other stats. And BTW, you picked a miniscule one. How about: Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. And they still sell cigarettes right.

Stop looking at the mortality rate and concentrate on the rate of those people going into the hospital and those going into ICU. If CV-19 overwhelms our health care system, what about all the other people who need to be hospitalized or placed in ICU? Are doctors going to have to choose who lives and who dies?

Having your lifestyle disrupted so abruptly sucks. I understand that. It sucks for all of us. But it's the price we have to pay to get this pandemic stopped in it's tracks right away. We do not want a repeat of the 1918 Spanish Flu. 675,000 Americans died and we had a population that was more than 3X smaller than it is today. If CV-19 duplicated the Spanish Flu we would see well over 2 million people die here in the US.

It's important not to keep asking "when are we getting there?" This is a 1000 mile trip and we just passed mile marker 50.

Lee:
First off, I don't know that I disagree with any fact you have stated. Secondly, I did not say anything about mortality rates related to COVID-19. And you are correct, I specifically stated that I was only going to mention ONE (in all caps) comparison; and that one is miniscule. I figured the post was long enough without trying to list EVERYTHING we trade for human life and health. There is no direct comparison. I was siimply stating that as a society, we make trade offs for human life and health every day. We just don't THINK about it every day. And we don't want to discuss it, because we don't want to feel that cold. I fully agree with you about cigarettes; but that is a whole other debate for another time.

I am just saying we need to balance things. Let's say you are correct, and we are only 1/20th into this, with nothing to look forward to for another 19 months (apologize if you had a different period of time targeted for your 50 mile mark... but I really don't know) but more of shutting everything down until the whole country is on lock down. Personally, I believe 19 months of lockdown will create more havoc than the havoc it prevented.

I don't have a crystal ball. Is Phil correct when he says it all blows over in 60 days? I don't know. Are you correct in stating we are only 1/20th of the way through? I don't know. You guys both have a right to your opinions. I hope and pray Phil is closer to the mark than you. Just because I WANT it to work out that way doesn't mean it will.

[Steve Shauger]

Let's hope the Singapore and South Korea model and measure which have produced amazing results are replicated everywhere so we drastically shorten and lessen the effects and devastation. My glass is half full.

[Crush]

Originally Posted by Lynn

Lee:
First off, I don't know that I disagree with any fact you have stated. Secondly, I did not say anything about mortality rates related to COVID-19. And you are correct, I specifically stated that I was only going to mention ONE (in all caps) comparison; and that one is miniscule. I figured the post was long enough without trying to list EVERYTHING we trade for human life and health. There is no direct comparison. I was siimply stating that as a society, we make trade offs for human life and health every day. We just don't THINK about it every day. And we don't want to discuss it, because we don't want to feel that cold. I fully agree with you about cigarettes; but that is a whole other debate for another time.

I am just saying we need to balance things. Let's say you are correct, and we are only 1/20th into this, with nothing to look forward to for another 19 months (apologize if you had a different period of time targeted for your 50 mile mark... but I really don't know) but more of shutting everything down until the whole country is on lock down. Personally, I believe 19 months of lockdown will create more havoc than the havoc it prevented.

I don't have a crystal ball. Is Phil correct when he says it all blows over in 60 days? I don't know. Are you correct in stating we are only 1/20th of the way through? I don't know. You guys both have a right to your opinions. I hope and pray Phil is closer to the mark than you. Just because I WANT it to work out that way doesn't mean it will.

Lynn
When I read your posts I hear a view that has less panic and hysteria in it. We need more of this at every level. The more we use statistics as a weapon to create panic and major uncertainty that is a failure to properly communicate. I do believe in reality to the degree it doesn’t lead to speculation or a stretching of reality. It is clear around the country that we are starting to compete against each other instead of working together by using different forms of data on both sides.
I believe It starts with each of us having a conversation that lends itself toward the future while being realistic as to where we are at and provide reasonable solutions which by the way won’t make EVERYOne happy. We need to think about the majority however harsh that sounds.
I received a panic text today that the number of cases has doubled. I told this person well that makes sense because we are testing more, right? Should I see it that way or sound the alarm there are more reported cases?There will be more cases.

I heard today that next week will be bad for the economy because there will be more people filing for unemployment at record levels. For me that makes sense because business are shut down for others this adds to the panic and hysteria . So what should WE do? Where is the balance?

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by Lynn

Lee:
First off, I don't know that I disagree with any fact you have stated. Secondly, I did not say anything about mortality rates related to COVID-19. And you are correct, I specifically stated that I was only going to mention ONE (in all caps) comparison; and that one is miniscule. I figured the post was long enough without trying to list EVERYTHING we trade for human life and health. There is no direct comparison. I was siimply stating that as a society, we make trade offs for human life and health every day. We just don't THINK about it every day. And we don't want to discuss it, because we don't want to feel that cold. I fully agree with you about cigarettes; but that is a whole other debate for another time.

I choose to get in my car or light up a cigarette. It's my choice alone. I have to accept the responsibility that I might be doing something risky both to my health and my life. Now let's expand that . . . I just walked out of a bar having had 6 hard liquor drinks (BTW - I don't drink at all). I am legally drunk. I tell myself I am OK to drive home. This is a direct comparison to the CV19 pandemic lockdown. I am acting irresponsible. I am not caring about anyone else but me. What I should do (call a taxi or friend) and what I am going to do (drive legally drunk) are two different things. It's as obvious as the nose on our faces which is the right decision.

I am just saying we need to balance things. Let's say you are correct, and we are only 1/20th into this, with nothing to look forward to for another 19 months (apologize if you had a different period of time targeted for your 50 mile mark... but I really don't know) but more of shutting everything down until the whole country is on lock down. Personally, I believe 19 months of lockdown will create more havoc than the havoc it prevented.

We are just getting started on our 1000 mile trip. We are still in first gear. We are crawling along because we can't get enough people tested. The more people that get tested the faster we can shift in to 2nd, 3rd, 4th 5th and 6th. What is scaring everyone and I mean everyone . . . the CDC, WHO, the president, the public, the stock market . . . is the unknown. There are so many things about CV19 that we don't know.

The experts tell us we have no antivirals nor vaccine for CV19. The only way we can stop it is self quarantine. Some people have it and they don't even realize it because they are young and healthy. I am terrified to go out of my home into a public place. I am almost 69 and I have Lymphoma. If I get CV19 I am dead. No question about that.

I don't have a crystal ball. Is Phil correct when he says it all blows over in 60 days? I don't know. Are you correct in stating we are only 1/20th of the way through? I don't know. You guys both have a right to your opinions. I hope and pray Phil is closer to the mark than you. Just because I WANT it to work out that way doesn't mean it will.

I think we are both right. In 60 days we will know pretty much everything there is to know about CV19. This is not a USA problem. This is a WORLD problem. There are literally millions of the best people in medical science working on getting us answers so we know what to do, what we can use to treat CV19 until we get a vaccine which takes 12 months at the earliest.

If the news or the internet is upsetting then shut them off. Go do something else. Like Steve did - go for a ride in your car. Do SOMETHING that you enjoy and will make you happy.

[Lee Stewart]

Decided to take a short trip to get out of the house - headed for the highway to just cruise. On the way back I suggested to my son we make a stop at Walmart - head over to the meat area - if it's empty - just leave.

So off we went. Got to the meat aisle and again almost everything was sold out. Going to try to make meatloaf using turkey sausage instead of beef. When we were there my son lost it! Some big fat guy was just grabbing everything in site and my son grabbed the sign that said be thoughtful of others - only 2 per item are allowed. And he said in a loud voice; "hey a$$hole . . . can't you read?" Well the guy got all flustered, apologized and put back about 90% of the stuff he took. My son is almost 6' 2' And has this menacing look that he can put on. That's my boy!