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Old 09-21-2004, 10:00 PM
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Default Re: Is this a War or not? Something to think about?

One of the main reasons bin Laden hates us because we kept our troops in Saudi Arabia after the Gulf War. Part of the deal to push Saddam out of Kuwait in '91 was that once the mission was accomplished, U.S. and NATO troops would redeploy out of the Holy Land (Saudi Arabia). They see us as infidels desecrating the Holy Land. The more radical among them, especially the very strict Wahabbi sect of Islam, which is growing in number and strength and potentially threatens the Saudi royal family's rule, is very supportive of Al Queda and bin Laden. They see bin Laden as their hero in part because he bloodied America's nose so dramatically on 9/11 but also because he shares their strict interpretation of the Koran.

It's too simple to say they hate us because of our freedom. They hate us because we are allied so closely with Israel and because we have kept the Arabs down for so long as we pump out ("steal") their oil, but it's mainly religious hatred.

The 1973-74 OPEC oil embargo occurred after the U.S. threw its support behind Israel during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Arabs were suspicious of the West long before that but Israel's sweeping victory in the 1973 war, with help from American weaponry, was the straw that broke the camel's back, so to speak. The Saudi royals, who are in a very difficult position, made a deal with the Islamic radicals (so did Saddam) that basically said that if the radicals left the royals alone, then the radicals would be left alone, within Saudi Arabia anyway. Bin Laden has had long-standing differences with the royal family even though they have tolerated each other in the past. After the '91 war and the permanent basing of American and NATO troops in Saudi Arabia, bin Laden has broken the 'agreement' with the royals and now names them as an enemy of Islam too. This is not good.

Bin Laden knew long before 9/11 that America has been angry about rising oil prices for decades. He knows damn well that we've had plans since at least the 1970s to invade and take "our oil" from the Saudis. Because bin Laden and Al Queda are fighting a long-term religious war, as they see it, they knew that it was inevitable that someday America would come to the Holy Land to take over the oil fields. (Again, that's how they see it.) 9/11 was Al Queda's and bin Laden's first major salvo in this new religious war. Yes, it's appropriate to look at it as a kind of 'Pearl Harbor' attack. Bin Laden knew that if he attacked America successfully, which he did on 9/11, that America would have to respond with a major force. Bin Laden said long before 9/11 that America wants to invade and occupy a Muslim country and take over the oil fields and that's what we've done in Iraq.

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has called the war in Iraq a "long, hard slog." He said that over a year ago. The Iraq war is similar to Vietnam in that we are fighting people who are very serious about defending their land and pushing out the invaders. The difference is that there was no oil under Vietnam. There's LOTS of oil underneath Iraq, the second-largest oil fields after Saudi Arabia. U.S. involvement in Vietnam lasted from about 1961 until 1975. U.S. involvement in Iraq, now that we're in it for the long haul, will go on until the last drop of oil is pumped out. That could take 50 more years.

I have a six year-old daughter and a four year-old son. Many of you have sons and daughters in uniform. I flew 38 combat missions as a USAF pilot in the '91 war and I've spent LOTS of time in Saudi Arabia. (My perception was that they only like us when we're spending money on rugs and souveniers. But there's places in America where people are that way...) We are going to be involved over there from now on, until the oil is all gone, period. It doesn't matter if it's Bush, Kerry, or Peter Pan in the White House, we're there for more than the foreseeable future because no president, not even Al Gore, could pull-out now. There will be a military draft, count on it. Re-starting the draft is probably going to be political suicide for a president Bush, Kerry, or Pan. But, once the deferment, etc., loopholes are worked into a military draft bill then it will be passed. Since the oil is forecast to last at least another 50 years then it's almost a given that my son will have to go. That's okay, but it's something to think about. I served and he and my daughter will probably want to serve too. Oil is America's number one national interest and after 9/11 we've gotten very serious about defending our national interest.

Last thought on all of this. Iran is working feverishly toward developing a nuclear capability and so is North Korea. It is a fact that America only invades countries that do not have nuclear weapons and that's one reason why so many countries want nukes. (The other reason is that they want to put their neighbors on notice not to try anything.) If Saddam had nukes, and it's a good thing that his ambition was halted, we'd be in a hell of a tight spot. Factor in Israel's assertion that they WILL NOT TOLERATE an Iranian nuclear capability (think of the religious aspect here) and it's not hard to imagine a MAJOR war breaking out in the middle east. I think America will tolerate a North Korean nuclear capability because invasion is just not plausible--there's a million of them in uniform and they could overrun South Korea in a matter of days, if not hours. I think we will probably resort to relying on Chinese help (probably in secret) to keep North Korea in check. Now that China is our business partner they will want to keep that business relationship with us healthy, at least for the next decade, until they have copied/stolen our manufacturing processes and can do it alone. (See: out-sourcing.) If the Israelis mount a pre-emptive attack on Iranian nuclear capability then it's fair to say that a major war is going to follow. Remember that it was Israel that stopped Saddam's first attempt at developing nuclear capability in 1982 when Israel launched a successful suprise attack with F-15s and F-16s. (Both types of warplanes are made in America. See what I mean?)

We are definately in for a long, hard slog. We are serious but so are the Islamic religious fundamentalist insurgents. They will not fight conventionally, they will fight using only terrorist tactics. Roadside bombs, kidnappings, beheadings, etc. are the way it's going to be. I hope I am wrong, but we're probably going to have to kill almost all of them, terrorists or not, if we have any chance of prevailing. That means that a lot of our kids are going to be killed as well. As long as there's oil we're in the fight and so are they.

So yes, this is definately a war. Yes, it is definately something to think about. Say a prayer for our kids in uniform, those in uniform today and those who are going to be in uniform in the coming years.


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